Every year around this time, housing forecasts begin to hit the news. Banks, boards, brokerages, and economists all release projections about where the market is headed next. Prices are expected to rise. Prices are expected to fall. Sales are projected to rebound. Sales are expected to stall. Some forecasts describe what sounds like a market recovery, whereas others emphasize a prolonged stagnant market. After reading several of them, it’s understandable if you’re more confused than educated.
Although forecasts are built on credible data, reasonable assumptions, and internally consistent models, they often answer different questions, using different definitions, focused on different segments of the market, and, most obviously, attempting to predict the future of variables that drive the market.
This article is not about choosing which forecast is correct. I wanted to review the major 2026 housing forecasts side by side, identifying where they diverge and align. When viewed this way, the 2026 outlook becomes less dramatic and far more constrained than many headlines suggest (including my own).
An important caveat
Housing forecasts tend to sound authoritative in the moment. In hindsight, they are far less impressive. This is not a criticism of any one institution. It is a reminder of how difficult housing markets are to predict, particularly in turning points and periods of structural change.
Consider a few recent examples.
In 2019, most major forecasts expected modest price growth and stable conditions. Few anticipated the combination of a global pandemic, emergency-rate policy, and demand acceleration that followed. Prices rose far faster and farther than projected.
In 2020, early-pandemic forecasts warned of sharp price declines driven by unemployment and economic shutdowns. In reality, prices surged once monetary stimulus, remote work, and constrained supply took hold. Many models were directionally wrong within months.
In 2021, forecasts began warning of overheating and an imminent correction. Prices continued rising through much of 2022, overshooting nearly every projection before interest rates finally reset the market.
In 2022, many analysts underestimated the speed and severity of the rate shock. Sales volumes fell faster than forecast, and price declines in some regions exceeded expectations. Others overestimated the durability of pandemic-era valuations.
In 2023 and 2024, forecasts diverged widely. Some called for quick rebounds. Others projected prolonged downturns. What actually occurred was uneven: sharp volume contractions, selective price declines, and significant regional divergence. Few models captured all three.
This does not make forecasts useless. It means they should be read as scenario outlines, not predictions. Their value lies in identifying constraints, sensitivities, and pressure points, not in providing a number to anchor expectations. If history is any guide, the most dangerous thing to do with a housing forecast is to assume that this year will be the one where everyone finally gets it right.
Housing forecasts should not be treated as predictions to bank on. Historically, no major institution consistently gets housing forecasts “right,” particularly when it comes to prices and sales figures. They describe how the market might behave if a specific set of assumptions holds. When those assumptions change, the outcomes change with them. With that caveat in place, the value of these forecasts is not in their precision, but in what they reveal about how different institutions interpret the same constraints.
Not all forecasts are describing the same market
The first mistake many readers might make is assuming housing forecasts are interchangeable. They are not.
Some forecasts are national. Others are provincial. Others focus on specific metropolitan regions. Some concentrate on resale transactions. Others emphasize prices, housing starts, or capital markets. Even when two organizations use the same term, such as “price,” they may be referring to different metrics, including average price, benchmark price, index-based measures, or aggregate value.
Canada does not have a single housing market. It has many regional and product-specific markets that respond differently to the same economic forces. Much of the disagreement in the 2026 outlook reflects differences in measurement rather than fundamental disagreement about national conditions.
Where the forecasts broadly agree: activity will activate before prices do
Across most major forecasts, there is a notable point of agreement. Sales activity in 2026 is expected to be higher than in 2025. The projected quantity varies, but the direction is largely consistent. This is not a controversial conclusion. Transaction volume typically responds first when uncertainty begins to fade. Buyers look for stability and a sense that pricing expectations are no longer moving against them.
Inventory availability and clearer market conditions tend to incentivize activity before they support price growth. A market can therefore feel busier without becoming more expensive. Most 2026 forecasts are describing this type of environment.
Where the forecasts diverge
Price projections are where meaningful differences appear. Depending on the source and geography, forecasts for 2026 range from modest price growth to continued declines in some high-priced regions. At face value, this appears contradictory. In practice, the divergence reflects three recurring structural issues that show up across the models.
Many forecasts rely on average prices rather than benchmark or repeat-sale indexes. This approach can be valid, but it requires specific interpretation. Average prices can rise even if individual properties are not appreciating. A shift toward higher-priced regions or product types can increase the average without implying broad-based price growth. This can happen when luxury or detached home prices increase, but apartments do not. The opposite can also occur when lower-priced segments dominate transaction volume.
Several forecasts that project rising prices are effectively projecting changes in transaction mix rather than uniform appreciation. Some organizations explicitly acknowledge this dynamic, while others might be implying it. Either way, the effect is present in the data. This alone explains why some forecasts show price growth while others show flat or declining values without either being internally inconsistent.
Inventory continues to constrain pricing
Another area of relative agreement is inventory normalization. Most forecasts assume that active listings remain well above the extremely tight conditions seen earlier in the decade. This does not indicate oversupply. It indicates expanded choice. Greater choice extends decision timelines, reduces urgency, and increases price sensitivity. Even if demand improves, it improves into a market that structurally favours negotiation. This is why several forecasts simultaneously project rising sales and flat or declining prices. Transaction volume can recover without restoring strong seller leverage. Sustained price acceleration generally requires falling inventory, faster absorption, and buyer urgency occurring at the same time.
Interest rates stabilize without driving a new cycle
Another shared assumption across most forecasts is the path of interest rates. Few credible outlooks assume a return to ultra-low borrowing costs. The dominant expectation is that policy rates plateau and mortgage rates move within a relatively narrow range. Buyers will likely adjust their expectations and budgets. However, valuation ceilings remain constrained by income growth, debt-service limits, and mortgage qualification rules. Rate stability supports transactions, but it does not automatically justify higher prices.
British Columbia: positive averages, persistent constraints
At the provincial level, forecasts for B.C. tend to sound constructive, but cautious. BCREA projects higher sales and modest average price growth in 2026, while clearly noting that part of the price movement reflects compositional effects rather than broad appreciation. This distinction is important. Provincial averages can improve even when many local markets remain flat.
Several bank economists take a more skeptical view. They identify B.C. as one of the weaker provinces in terms of price performance due to inventory levels, affordability constraints, and reduced urgency in higher-priced markets. These perspectives are not mutually exclusive. They reflect different ways of interpreting the same underlying conditions.
Metro Vancouver as a recurring outlier
If there is one region where forecasts consistently contrast the national narratives, it is Metro Vancouver. Multiple credible forecasts suggest that even if Canada records modest gains, Metro Vancouver prices may continue to drift lower in 2026. Detached and apartment segments are often forecast separately, with both underperforming national averages.
Price-to-income ratios remain elevated, absorption at higher price points is slower, and investor demand for condos has weakened while buildings under construction come to completion. National averages often mask these pressures because lower-priced regions recover first. Canada can stabilize while its most expensive markets continue to adjust.
CMHC: recovery without resolution
CMHC’s outlook provides additional context by focusing less on short-term price movements and more on system capacity. Their analysis suggests that demand may stabilize as economic confidence improves, but housing starts, particularly in condo-heavy regions, respond more slowly due to financing, presales, and cost pressures. Supply growth moderates before affordability improves.
This produces a market caught between improving sentiment and unresolved structural constraints. Markets in this condition tend to drift rather than surge. This perspective aligns closely with many private-sector forecasts, even when the headline numbers differ.
Concluding Statements
When these forecasts are reconciled rather than compared, a coherent picture emerges. Sales activity in 2026 is likely to be higher than in 2025. Pricing outcomes will be uneven and heavily dependent on geography and product type. National averages may obscure local realities. Negotiation will remain a defining feature of the market: this is not a momentum-driven environment, it is a constraint-driven one.
The greatest risk in forecast season is not being optimistic or pessimistic. It is being over-reliant on projections. They expose the limitations of averages and the danger of applying national narratives and generalities to local conditions and potential shifts in policy. The relevant question for 2026 is not whether prices will rise or fall. It is where, for which products, and under what constraints. That is where the forecasts stop competing and begin to make a bit of sense.
Bottom Line: What the Major Forecasts Are Actually Saying About 2026
- CREA (Canada-wide resale market)
Forecasts a recovery in transaction volume, with MLS® sales around 509,000 in 2026, roughly 7–8% higher than 2025, alongside a national average sale price near $699,000, implying about 3% annual growth. CREA’s outlook is primarily a sales-led recovery model with modest national price appreciation. - RBC Economics (Canada, index-based pricing)
Projects stronger resale activity in 2026 but expects the RPS Home Price Index to decline slightly, with the weakest price performance concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia. RBC’s forecast implies improving liquidity without a full price recovery in the most expensive markets. - TD Economics (national and provincial)
Forecasts a broadly balanced national market and estimates price growth in the range of roughly 4–5% nationally in 2026. TD explicitly notes that part of this growth reflects compositional effects, and it continues to flag BC and Ontario as lagging regions. - BCREA (British Columbia)
Projects BC MLS® sales in the low-80,000 range in 2026 and a provincial average price approaching $1.0 million, about 4% higher year over year. BCREA is clear that this is not uniform appreciation, and that changes in sales mix play a meaningful role in the average price increase. - RE/MAX (Canada-wide outlook)
Expects moderate growth in national home sales, generally in the low single-digit range, while projecting continued softness in prices, with some outlooks pointing to national price declines of several percentage points. RE/MAX’s framing emphasizes inventory normalization and affordability pressure, rather than renewed price momentum. - Royal LePage (aggregate price framework)
Forecasts Canada up roughly 1% on an aggregate price basis by the end of 2026, while projecting continued price declines in Metro Vancouver, including larger drops for detached homes and ongoing weakness in condos. This outlook highlights regional divergence more than national direction. - CMHC (multi-year housing market outlook)
Does not publish a single point estimate for prices, but anticipates improving demand conditions, higher resale activity, and moderating housing starts, particularly in condominium-heavy markets. CMHC’s outlook suggests stabilization rather than a full reset, with affordability constraints unresolved. - Reuters economist polls (consensus view)
Surveys of economists suggest flat to low-single-digit national price growth in 2026, generally clustering around 0–2%, reflecting expectations of rate stability, modest economic growth, and persistent regional divergence.
