A recent article in Western Investor, “Holiday house-hunting could save Metro Vancouver buyers 10%, says firm”, argued that January tends to offer the lowest home prices of the year. It is an appealing and intuitivey-friendly conclusion. Winter has fewer active buyers, fewer new listings, and a general lack of momentum that can make the quieter months feel more negotiable.

It also aligns with what many real estate professionals see anecdotally. Still, intuition is not enough. I wanted to see whether this pattern holds true in the Fraser Valley and whether it behaves consistently across detached homes, townhomes, and apartments. I also wanted to understand how much seasonal timing actually matters for most consumers.

So I pulled more than twenty years of Fraser Valley benchmark data and analyzed the lowest and highest months in every year. Some of the Western Investor article’s assumptions were confirmed, but the data also revealed patterns that are more nuanced and more specific to the Fraser Valley. And, to be clear, the reason I study the Fraser Valley so closely is because this kind of analysis is almost never done here. Most commentary focuses on Vancouver, even though our markets can behave very differently.

Why calendar-year peaks can be misleading

In many years, December shows up as the annual “calendar” peak because the calendar stops in December. If the market is rising throughout the year, the highest month will simply be the last month measured. Prices may have continued rising into January, February, or March of the next year, but the dataset does not capture that.

I think we all intuitively understand this. A calendar-based December “peak” does not necessarily reflect seasonal strength. It often reflects an upward trend that happens to extend through the end of the year. The calendar boundary forces the peak to land in December. Once we correct for this, a much clearer and more meaningful seasonal pattern emerges.

Also, month-to-month growth rates are not useful for buyers. Buyers want to know when prices typically reach their lowest point. When I identified each year’s trough month, the results were consistent across all property types.

Detached homes

• January was the lowest benchmark month in 15 of 21 years.
• December was the lowest in 3 years.
• Only 3 years bottomed outside the winter period.

In other words, roughly 70% of all detached troughs occur in January. More than 85% occur in winter.

Townhomes

Townhomes show the strongest seasonal pattern.

• January was the trough in 14 of 21 years.
• November & December accounted for 3 more.
• Only two years bottomed in spring.

Townhomes almost always hit their lowest point during the winter months.

Apartments

Condos behave slightly differently, but the winter pattern is still dominant.

• January was the trough in 10 of 21 years.
• December was the trough in 8 of 21 years.
• Only three years bottomed in another month.

Condos show a two-month trough window: December & January.

What this means for buyers

• Detached & townhome buyers have historically had their highest chance of value in January.
• Condo buyers typically have a prolonged favourable period: December & January.

Remember, this is not a prediction. It is simply what the historical data shows.

Spring consistently provides the strongest conditions for sellers. Prices often accelerate, buyers return to the market with urgency, and competitive pressure increases. Even in years where December prints the highest number, the true momentum belongs to the spring cycle.

That said, the calendar-year peak data still reveals patterns worth acknowledging, as long as we interpret them properly.

Detached homes

• December appears as the annual peak in 9 of 21 years, but many of these are statistical artifacts.
• May, June, and July collectively account for 7 more peak years.
• The general pattern is clear: prices tend to rise through spring and often continue rising toward year-end in appreciating markets.

Townhomes

• April appears as the peak in 3 years.
• December appears in 4 years.
• Summer & early fall capture several additional peaks.

The strongest and most reliable peak behaviour occurs during the spring upswing or the late-year continuation of a rising trend.

Apartments

• December appears as the peak in 8 years, again mostly due to calendar distortion.
• March through June account for about half the remaining peaks.

Condos tend to peak during the spring demand cycle or during the continuation of upward momentum later in the year.

What this actually means for sellers

Spring remains the most favourable environment for sellers. Prices often rise, inventory tightens, and buyers return in meaningful numbers. Even when benchmarks climb into the winter months, the more competitive and advantageous conditions tend to appear in spring.

How big is the seasonal gap between trough and peak?

Many consumers will naturally ask how much this matters. To quantify the difference, I measured the percentage spread between each year’s trough month and peak month.

Across the full 2005–2025 dataset

• Detached homes: median spread around 8%; average around 11%.
• Townhomes: median around 7%; average around 9.5%.
• Apartments: median around 7%; average around 11%.

Across the last decade (2015–2024)

Greater volatility increased the size of the gap.

• Detached homes: median around 14%; average around 16%.
• Townhomes: median around 9%; average around 13%.
• Apartments: median around 10%; average around 14%.

Put simply, seasonal timing can matter. The difference between buying at the trough and selling at the peak often sits in the high single digits to mid-teens. In some years, the spread is much larger.

However, this does not apply equally to everyone.

Why “buy in winter, sell in summer” only applies to certain groups

The thumbnail for this article says “Buy in Winter” and “Sell in Summer”. It is a clean summary and, in isolation, it matches the data.

However, this advice only applies directly to a small segment of the population. It applies to first-time buyers who are not selling anything.
It applies to investors who are unloading a property without replacing it locally. It applies to people who are cashing out of the market entirely or moving out of the region.

These people experience only one side of the market. They can take full advantage of the seasonal spread. Most homeowners, however, buy and sell within the same market. When that happens, the seasonal advantage cancels itself out. If you sell in the spring peak and buy in the spring peak, the price gap between products remains the same. If you buy in the January trough and also sell in the January trough, both sides of the transaction move together.

For these homeowners, seasonal timing matters far less than factors like inventory availability, personal timelines, and conditions within their specific price band.

Seasonality still provides context and insight. It simply does not create a measurable financial advantage when both transactions occur within the same seasonal cycle.

A simple, data-driven summary

Best months for buyers

Detached: January most often, occasionally December
Townhomes: January in the majority of years
Apartments: December & January almost exclusively

Best months for sellers

Not calendar peaks, but true seller-friendly conditions
Spring offers the best balance of pricing behaviour, buyer activity, and competitive intensity.

Typical seasonal gap

Historically: roughly 7% to 8%
Last decade: roughly 9% to 14%

Winter presents real opportunities for buyers. Late Spring usually presents the strongest conditions for sellers. But for anyone moving within the same market, the most important insight is not “when to time the market” but understanding how the market typically behaves so they can plan without unnecessary stress.

By the way, it’s mid December, so first time home buyers and investors… you should maybe give me a call.